The Four Seasons of Real Estate: Recovery, Expansion, Hyper-Supply, Recession — markets follow 7-18 year cycles. The biggest mistake is buying at peak expansion. Strategy Performance by Market: Hot markets favor quick flips but compress margins. Cold markets offer cheap entry but higher vacancy risk. Recovery periods offer the best buying. It's Not About National Headlines: Focus on local indicators: Days on Market, Months of Inventory, Rental Vacancy Rate, and Job Growth. The Contrarian Edge: During 2009-2012 recovery, investors who bought at 50 cents on the dollar built generational wealth. Direction matters more than timing precision. Building Permits as Leading Indicator: A surge in permits means new supply in 12-18 months. A drop means future supply constraints that push prices up.